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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still